C32 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space ModelsReturn

This paper analyses the foreign exchange rate exposure of Hungarian firms and its determinants on the basis of corporate cash flows and stock prices. The analysis focuses on the HUF/EUR exchange rate using monthly data from 2000 - 2014, resp. 2003 - 2012 in case of cash flow analysis. Stock prices exposure analysis showed that significant number of these firms is exposed: 18.4 % of publicly listed companies were significantly exposed in period 2007 - 2014 which is significantly higher than in previous period. According to the cash flow analysis results, 34 % of firms are exposed, whilst 45.3 % of small firms are significantly exposed. The measuring of exchange rate risk and hedging is therefore crucial for reduction of the firms' uncertainty. Cross-sectional analysis suggests that the turnover and foreign sales are also important determinants of firms' exchange rate exposure.

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among interbank market interest rates and corporate loans interest rates in four countries from the euro area (Austria, Belgium, France and Italy), and in the Czech Republic. The paper also estimates a development of bank credit margin in banking industries of these countries in period from January 2004 to March 2010. Using Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests on monthly data we investigate long-term as well as short-term causalities between the interest rates. The results suggest that interest rate relationships differ in all selected countries, and also that foreign majority owners of the Czech banks could affect interest rate policy of the subsidiaries to offset losses realized by the parent banks.